The Principal Knowledge Center

With U.S. data in September revealing a more lackluster rebound than expected from the puny sub-1% pace of the first half, it’s nice to report that median household income jumped 5.2% in 2015 over 2014, the biggest leap since records began in 1967.

Will high interest rates bring a recession? Eventually, yes, when rates get too high; but, it’s doubtful that a 0.25% to 0.5% rise in long-term rates would generate a recession.

Contrary to many pundits, the U.S. business cycle is likely not winding down, yet.

While the odds still favor a December or early 2017 hike, investors have effectively been placed on notice that a move in policy rates is now becoming a serious proposition.

Seven years after the end of the global financial crisis, the world economy may finally be sloughing off some of the last dregs of fear, paranoia, and pessimism that have consumed so many for so long.

If neither mismeasurement nor demographics can account for slow growth of U.S. output per hour, then it could be simply the measly pace of capital spending.