Principal Knowledge Center
The latest insights from our experts on attitudes, behaviors and trends that impact long-term financial security. Thought leaders from across the globe provide data analysis, research and perspective on the economy, investment management, retirement security and more.
According to the National Bureau of Economic Research, the last U.S. recession started in December 2007 and ended in March 2009. Which means this expansion has lasted 106 months, making it one of the longest on record. But what if I told you that the United States was nearly in recession two years ago.
If Friday the 13th is as unlucky as legend implies, at least its occasion last week did not wreak havoc on international trade. Some potential trade pitfalls even seem to be lessening as further negotiations proceed.
Friday’s payroll report from the Bureau of Labor Statistics was disappointing. Headline job gains were a measly 103,000; revisions to January and February payrolls lopped off another 50,000 jobs. For several reasons, we’re not worried.
The world economic expansion that began in early 2016 marched onward in the first quarter, but growth momentum came off the boil. Outside the United States, the energy that kept pushing signs of business activity and consumer confidence to new cycle highs for over a year has faded.
After new Fed Chairman Powell’s flawless press conference, investors aren’t much closer to an answer. Some analysts felt the changes in Federal Open Market Committee (Committee) members’ expectations leaned toward a fourth rate hike in 2018.
For 2018, the market has already priced in three rate hikes, and some investment firms are calling for four. If the Fed tightens too quickly that would be negative for markets and for the U.S. economy.